| Arctic Arkansas, Tips to save money this winter season | Arctic Arkansas. The best chances for snow in the north will be in early to mid-January and mid-February. These two phases produce opposite changes in clouds and rainfall and this entiredipole(i.e., having two main opposing centers of action) propagates eastward. SkyWarn | Arctic Arkansas, RELATED: Tips to save money this winter season | Arctic Arkansas. His unchanging location is associated with the persistent changes intropical rainfalland winds that we havepreviously describedas being linked to ENSO. All NOAA, A winter storm will track northeast across the region this evening into Thursday, bringing snow, heavy at times. Lake-effect snow will be less prolific in the eastern Great Lakes, including areas around Buffalo, New York; Erie, Pennsylvania; and Cleveland. for the Upper Mississippi River Valley The status of the PDO between 1950 and this year, shown at bottom, indicates a predominantly positive phase from about 1978 to 1998 and a negative phase since 1999. Arkansas is such a beautiful place to hike, and the landscape of the Natural State during the winter months is extra enchanting. The MJO can modulate the timing and strength of monsoons (e.g., Jones and Carvalho, 2002; Lavender and Matthews, 2009), influence tropical cyclone numbers and strength in nearly all ocean basins (e.g., Maloney and Hartmann, 2000), and result in jet stream changes that can lead to cold air outbreaks, extreme heat events, and flooding rains over the United States and North America (Higgins et al. Madden R. and P. Julian, 1971: Detection of a 40-50 day oscillation in the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific,J. Atmos. Higgins, W., J. Schemm, W. Shi, and A. Leetmaa, 2000: Extreme precipitation events in the western United States related to tropical forcing. According to his winter forecast for 2022-2023, one half of the United States would experience extremely cold and a ton of snow, while the other . Weather Forecast Legend WeatherTAB helps you plan activities on days with the least risk of rain. The daily scores are accumulated through the winter season, allowing a running total of winter severity in the midst of a season as well as a final, cumulative value characterizing the full season. This is lower than last winter when there were four occasions on which snow accumulated across the region. How bad is winter 2022-2023 be? There is a 76% chance of La Nia during the Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February) 2022-23, with a transition to ENSO-neutral favored in February-April 2023 (57% chance). 31,038 views May 21, 2022 669 Dislike Share Save Direct Weather 177K subscribers Join this. "We're not looking for the type of year that we had last year with these very, very long periods of heavy rain and snow across California, northern California and the Northwest," Pastelok said. this winter's forecast for the northern half of the United States is expected to be colder than average with more snow than usual in . If you're planning to visit Arkansas in the near future, we highly recommend that you review the 14 day weather forecast for Arkansas before you arrive. The changes in rainfall and winds described above impact both the Tropics and the Extratropics, which makes the MJO important for extended-range weather and climate prediction over the U.S. and many other areas. La Nia episodes typically last 9-12 months. An Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI). Geophys. For more information, please contact Barb Mayes Boustead ([email protected]) at the National Weather Service or Steve Hilberg ([email protected]). For Rochester, the temperature and precipitation data extend back to the 1886-87 winter and snowfall back to 1908-09. Sea surface temperature pattern showing the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (top). Old farmer's almanac winter 2021 2022 old farmer's almanac winter 2021 2022. Res. This once-in-a-lifetime eruption was so powerful that it sent shockwaves around the world and caused the amount of water vapor in the stratosphere to increase by around 5%, according to a recent report by The Associated Press. View detailed forecast, WeatherTAB 2023. This failure of the typical pattern occurs because La Nia is never the only thing that influences the climate over the United States during the winter. Precipitation Plotter Now imagine another bike rider entering the stage on the left and pedaling slowly across the stage, passing the stationary bike (ENSO), and exiting the stage at the right. The clash of cold air with lingering warmth could spark an out-of-season severe weather event in the Midwest or Ohio Valley late in November or in December. Some of our favorite winter hikes in Arkansas include the Triple Falls Trail in Jasper, the Lost Valley Trail in Ponca, Bridal Veil Falls Loop in Herbert Springs, and pretty much all of the trails at Petit Jean State Park. Notifications can be turned off anytime in the browser settings. While the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a lesser-known phenomenon, it can have dramatic impacts in the mid-latitudes. Unlock AccuWeather Alerts with Premium+. Precipitation was largely subpar from June through October. CPC 2022-23 U.S. Winter Outlook: The following video highlights from NOAA's 2022-2023 Winter Outlook that provide seasonal predictions for temperature, precipitation, and drought. Although 2022 couldn't come close to the robust number of deals announced in 2021, it was on par with previous years with more than 1,070 VC-backed startups Derek Groff, ASA en LinkedIn: Forecast: Startup M&A Could Pick Up In 2023 As Fundraising Tightens Further Stay safe during severe cold weather. Hospitals / Nursing Homes Questions? The most recent IRI plume forecast of the Nio-3.4 SST index indicates La Nia will persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23, and then transition to ENSO-neutral in February-April 2023[Fig. MonthlyandDailyvalues for the Arctic Oscillation Index are available from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. The new forecast, issued Aug.18, 2022, is pegged on the thought that La Nia is expected to continue through this winter before fading to near normal water temperatures next spring. Take a look at the official winter predictions with a summary from The 2023 Old Farmer's Almanac. Updated: Oct 17, 2021 / 02:19 PM CDT. | Arctic Arkansas, RELATED: Winter warnings vs watches, what's the difference? Figure 2. This year, with the extreme summer weather conditions broiling the country, and the growing concern over the rising costs of heating oil, Farmers' Almanac is releasing its winter weather forecast earlier than ever. For temperature, theres a strong tendency for temperatures to be below average across some of the West and North, particularly in the Northern Plains, with a weaker signal for above-average temperatures in the Southeast, as shown in the image below. While increased tornado activity is generally associated with La Nina conditions, blaming this years high activity on the weak La Nina conditions would be exaggerating the strength of the historical relationship (footnote 2). Often, the near-normal category remains at 33.33%, and the category opposite the favored one is below 33.33% by the same amount that the favored category is above 33.33%. 2: animation). The NAO index is obtained by projecting the NAO loading pattern to the daily anomaly 500 millibar height field over 0-90N. Enhanced rising motion is also observed over northern South America, while anomalous sinking motion is found over eastern Africa. The AWSSI data is gathered every hour throughout the day. Lavender, S. and A. Matthews, 2009: Response of the West African monsoon to the Madden-Julian Oscillation,J. Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperature is close to the part of the U.S. most strongly impacted by severe weather: warm Gulf of Mexico surface water in spring enhances low-level moisture transport and southerly flow and is associated with enhanced US tornado and hail activity (Molina et al., 2016). A repeat of last winter's early-season storms is unlikely, according to long-range forecasters. La Crosse has only had 1 winter in the coldest third and Rochester has only had 2 winters (2013-14 & 2018-19) in the coldest third. Meanwhile, there have been more near-normal winters (6) than either colder (3) or warmer (4) than normalat Rochester. The forecast calls for a trace accumulation . Samantha Parish. Last day with 1 inch of snow on the ground See more current weather Arkansas Extended Forecast with high and low temperatures Jan 8 - Jan 14 Lo:33 Science, 293, 85-89. Imagine ENSO as a person riding astationaryexercise bike in the middle of a stage all day long. Expect numerous chances for cold fronts, some with rain, some with snow and ice. However the majority of ice storms have hit during La Nia winters. Due to this, the CPC winter temperature and precipitation outlooks are consistent with typical La Nia impacts across much of the United States. This will be the general track for storm systems this season. Our weather forecast can give you a great sense of what weather to expect in Arkansas in January 2023. For example, 8 of the 11 strong and moderate events show the cool conditions in the Northern Great Plains, which is most winters, but not all. The 2023 Farmers' Almanac, which hits the store . On Jan. 15, 2022, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haapai volcano, an underwater volcano located about 2,200 miles northeast of Sydney, Australia, erupted in grand fashion, sending a significant plume of gas, ash and water vapor high into Earths atmosphere. The more vigorous storm track and slight tilt toward colder temperatures over the northern tier of the U.S. during La Nia modestly increase the chance of a relatively snowy winter. The winter season begins when the first of any one of the following instances occur: First measurable snowfall (>= 0.1 inch) Community Involvement This video and related map images can also be accessed at https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-winter-outlook-warmer-drier-south-with-ongoing-la-nina. Splitting La Nia events into strength reveals some interesting differences worth investigating further. The trend is an important component of seasonal temperature forecasts. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. River Stages Remember last year's almost snow-free winter in the Northeast? What are the best winter hikes in Arkansas? La Nias can be highly variable with precipitation. . As the calendar turned to December, the storm track shifted northward, directing the rain and mountain snow toward Washington and British Columbia, Canada. Until recently, the only solid evidence showing that more tornadoes occur during La Nia conditions was for winter (January-March), when the ENSO signal is strongest, but average tornado activity is relatively low (Cook & Schaefer, 2008). The harshest season of the year brings a constant battle between polar regions and tropical regions, fought across the central U.S. Let's go over a few notes heading into winter. ARKANSAS, USA Pre-season cold blasts have already brought rounds of snow and chilly air to Arkansas, but will this continue December, January, and February? Lamar Schools mourn death of student-athlete killed in crash, Crawford County community divided on banning LGBTQ books in library, Winter warnings vs watches, what's the difference? Seasonal (May-July) averages of Gulf of Mexico SST can be predicted with some skill (Jung and Kirtman, 2016). National Weather Service There is above-normal snowfall around the Pacific basin and below-normal snowfall around the Atlantic basin. Wallace, 2000: Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. The winter outlook from WeatherBell Analytics, a weather consulting firm, should put more pep in the step of snow lovers. it is common for La Nia to last for two years or more. Every year the Farmer's Almanac releases their prediction for the upcoming winter, and the forecast for 2022-23 is looking like a very wet and cold winter. Temperature Forecast Normal Avg High Temps 50 to 60 Avg Low Temps 20 to 35 Avg High Temps 5 to 15 Avg Low Temps -5 to 5 Rain Frequency 2 to 4 days Click or Tap on any day for a detailed forecast. Realtime MJO information that is updated daily or weekly can be found on the NOAA CPCMJO webpage. As air sinks from high altitudes, it warms and dries, which suppresses rainfall. Areas from the Gulf Coast to the Southern Plains and mountain West are most favored to see above-average temperatures for the entire three-month winter period from December through February,. Winter 2022-23 Preliminary Forecast 22 days ago September 7, 2022 A slew of analogs is being used for the upcoming winter season. Resorts in Vermont and New Hampshire could end up being the best places to ski this winter across the eastern U.S. due to a boost from natural snowfall. Other climate phenomena, such as the Arctic Oscillation or the Madden Julian Oscillation, as well as the random nature of weather, can also play a large part in how winter turns out. Brian Lada, AccuWeather meteorologist and staff writer, Published Sep 28, 2022 2:35 PM CET Schools Station / Location Info NOAA Climate.gov drawing by Fiona Martin. Weak LaNias (41% chance for this winter) tend to favor colder- and near-normal winters. THV11 weather forecast | Dec. 31, 2022. However, the frequency, number, and intensity of these events cannot be predicted on a seasonal timescale. J. Pastelok added that unlike volcanic ash, which reflects sunlight, the water vapor acts like a blanket and keeps warmer air trapped underneath. WeatherTAB helps you plan activities on days with the least risk of rain. He added that if there is enough of the central U.S. is covered in snow, the strongest push of Arctic air could result in a frost or freeze in southern Texas. Will it be a snowy one? Passing clouds. Precipitation tends to be below-average across the southern tier of the United States and wetter than average across the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley. Maximum temperature at or below 32F "These third-year La Nias are very tricky," Pastelok said, with no two La Nia winters being exactly the same. Indeed, historic tornado outbreaks in1974,2008,and2011started during La Nia conditions. In cities such as Washington, D.C., the emphasis is not on how much snow will fall, but on how often snow makes an appearance. Whatever your #DressCode, there are 3 ITEMS I recommend every Boaters The seasonal data is then subject to quality control, and seasons missing data that would contribute 5% or more of the seasons AWSSI are removed. With snow accumulation up to 88 inches, and entire summers with temperatures below freezing, the northern hemisphere was rattled with Satan's snow. Winter seasons have significant societal impacts across all sectors ranging from direct human health and mortality to commerce, transportation, and education. For those curious about why this occurs, Nat Johnson wrote an article on it for the NOAA Climate Blog on May 27, 2021. Last year, there were several snow events across the region that blanketed some southern cities. where snowfall is greater than average and brown shows where snowfall is less than average. The MJO consists of two parts, orphases: one is the enhanced rainfall (orconvective) phase and the other is the suppressed rainfall phase. Since late July 2022, negative subsurface temperature anomalies have been quite persistent[Fig. If the early snowpack holds in western Canada, it may allow colder air, stronger cold fronts, to dive south. Averages and standard deviations are calculated for running accumulations of daily temperature and snow scores as well as the total AWSSI. FILE Icicles cling to a barbed wire fence outside a nursery Sunday, Jan. 30, 2022, in Plant City, Fla. (AP/Chris O'Meara) A winter storm will. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey, File). Since the late-1980s, LaNiawinters have been highly variable at La Crosse. Other climate phenomena, such as the Arctic Oscillation or the Madden Julian Oscillation, as well as the random nature of weather, can also play a large part in how winter turns out. Abstract | Full Text | PDF (2545 KB). -5NEWS Chief Meteorologist Matt Standridge, RELATED: Winter, yay or nay? Freezing rain, drizzle and sleet is in the forecast, and a winter weather advisory is in effect for Anne Arundel County from 6 a.m. until 2 p.m. Friday. However, as is evident in these maps, there is a great deal of variability even among strong La Nia events. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecastfor the upcoming winter months of December-February: While a weak to moderate La Nia is expected to impact the weather across much of the United States, its impacts in the Upper Mississippi River Valley can be highly variable with both temperatures and precipitation. 2000, Cassou, 2008, Lin et al. "But we can see some moderate systems and occasionally one bigger period where it does get hit hard in the Northwest.". The warmth will extend south across the border to places like Lubbock and Amarillo, Texas, as well as to the north and west as spots like Dodge City and Wichita, Kansas, and Denver could have above-normal temperatures. August 29, 2022 NOAA's 2022-2023 Winter Forecast The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA) makes long-range forecasts each month. ", Have the app? active final stretch of the Atlantic hurricane season, causing 76 fatalities and $18 billion in damage just before the start of the holiday season, a tornado outbreak across Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama on Christmas Day, cold-blooded iguanas that reside in Florida to become temporarily stunned, no snow days during the 2022-2023 academic year. Despite the weather pattern shaping up in a similar matter as it has the past two years, Pastelok warns that this winter "will be a little different from last year, as far as the primary storm track across the West Coast.". The positive phase of the NAO reflects below-normal heights and pressure across the high latitudes of the North Atlantic and above-normal heights and pressure over the central North Atlantic, the eastern United States and western Europe. During the years of 2022, 2023, and 2024, an event like no other struck the ENTIRE United States, unleashing total chaos upon the country. . The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued a 90-day forecast for anticipated winter weather around the Pacific Northwest between December of 2022 and March 2023. Please select one of the following: is slightly favored across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Wallace, 2001: Regional Climate Impacts of the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode. AccuWeather meteorologists are predicting that most of the contiguous U.S. will experience a mild start to winter, but some of the warmest weather throughout December could be focused on the central Plains. Best for planning. Rainfall will be near normal in the north and above normal in the south, with the best threats for snow in the north from late december into. | The bulk of accumulation will occur by daybreak Thursday with 1 to 2" per hour rates common. This video and related map images can also be accessed at https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-winter-outlook-warmer-drier-south-with-ongoing-la-nina. The NAO exhibits considerable interseasonal and interannual variability, and prolonged periods (several months) of both positive and negative phases of the pattern are common. varies on a week-to-week basis). Pastelok added that if the water in the Gulf of Mexico and along the Atlantic coast remain warmer than usual, there is the chance for a "potentially big system" to develop during the second half of the winter that could impact the East Coast. Please Contact Us. Winter is fast approaching, but AccuWeather meteorologists say that it will shape up much differently than last winter in part due to a volcano that erupted on the other side of the globe. This winter, AccuWeather is predicting that Washington, D.C., will experience accumulating snow on only three to five days throughout the season with total accumulations amounting to 6 to 10 inches, just below the average of 13.7 inches. It is this entire dipole structure, illustrated in Figure 3, that moves west to east with time in the Tropics, causing more cloudiness, rainfall, and even storminess in the enhanced convective phase, and more sunshine and dryness in the suppressed convective phase. Hot Chocolate Warning In The East and South Now that temperatures are getting cooler many are getting excited about fall, but some are wondering if this winter will bring 20" of snow like we saw last year. "There is a chance once again on this third La Nia winter, that cold air reaches this region." Arkansas winter 2021-2022 outlook. An Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index. The CPC winter temperature forecasts to the right show the most likely outcome where there is greater confidence, but this is not the only possible outcome. The storied old journal's . The 2022-2023 winter season may have record-breaking cold temperatures of 40 degrees below zero in some places in the US! This atmospheric disturbance is distinct from ENSO, which once established, is associated with persistent features that last several seasons or longer over the Pacific Ocean basin. The NAO loading pattern has been chosen as the first mode of a Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis using monthly mean 500 millibar height anomaly data from 1950 to 2000 over 0-90N latitude. Winter temperature differences from average (degrees F) during La Nia winters dating back to 1950. Temperatures throughout the final month of 2022 are forecast to run about 3 degrees Fahrenheit above normal across part of the nation's midsection, including areas around Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Try searching for a city, zip code or point of interest. Thompson, D.W.J., S. Lee, and M.P. 60-70% of La Nia winters in the past have brought more snowfall to Arkansas. However, because temperature also plays an important role in snowfall, some predictability is likely nonetheless. The most obvious reflection of the phase of this oscillation is the north-to-south location of the storm-steering, mid-latitude jet stream. The negative phase reflects an opposite pattern of height and pressure anomalies over these regions. As of mid-November, polar ice is running 91% of normal, running more extensive than the past 5 years. Temperatures this low can also cause the cold-blooded iguanas that reside in Florida to become temporarily stunned by the cold to the point that they appear dead before the warmth reanimates the reptiles. Street Departments StormReady Use commonly available datamax/min temperature, snowfall, and snow depth or precipitation, Create a historical database of AWSSI for any location with daily temperature, snow, and precipitation data, Allow comparisons of season-to-season severity at one location in the context of the climatology of that location or between locations, Use as a baseline to scale subjective impacts such as those to snow removal, commerce, and transportation, Does not include wind (e.g. Want a tour? No one likes ice. Multiple locations were found. Below are the temperature, precipitation, and snow data for La Crosse, WI, and Rochester, MN. The AWSSI is not limited to meteorological winter (December February) but is intended to capture winter weather from its earliest occurrence to its last. Descriptive categories were assigned to each quintile as follows: CONUS AWSSI during La Nia (23 Winters since 1954-55), The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) The precipitation pattern, presented above, shows negative anomalies (indicating below-normal rainfall) across the entire southern part of the country with a weaker signal of above-average precipitation in the Ohio Valley and in the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Around the same time that the coldest air of the season freezes the Plains, AccuWeather meteorologists say, the overall track of storm systems across the U.S. could change. That provides a significantly different picture, with the average of the latest events much warmer than the earlier ones. J. Atmos. Every year Americans eagerly await the next winter prediction, and many hope for a more mild winter. temperature and precipitation over the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, The remainder of the U.S. falls into the category of equal chances for. This failure of the typical pattern occurs because La Nia is never the only thing that influences the climate over the United States during the winter. All of the latest weekly Nio index values were near -1.0C, with the exception of Nio-1+2 which was at -1.8C[Fig. This will highlight those regions that often have temperature or precipitation anomalies of the same sign. Public Information Statement This La Nia footprint is pretty intuitive. TEI and HEI are calibrated to match the recent climatology of tornado numbers and hail events. 54, No. Zhou S., M. LHeureux, S. Weaver, and A. Kumar, 2012: A composite study of MJO influence on the surface air temperature and precipitation over the Continental United States. However, in emergency situations where schools cannot adequately plan or prepare for distance learning, the district may close schools entirely, Clark said. Wetter-than-normal does not necessarily mean that it will be snowier than normal. Future posts will focus on the details of how we monitor and assess the strength of the MJO, provide details on impacts and the reasons for those impacts, and describe the current state of MJO predictability. Such rising air motion in the atmosphere tends to increase condensation and rainfall. The predictability of seasonal snowfall may be somewhat similar to precipitation in that one or two big events can dramatically affect the seasonal average. This controversial move is not being adopted across the board, with Philadelphia School District spokeswoman Christina Clark commenting on the matter shortly after the news broke about the decision made by the New York City schools. La Nias typically occur every 3 to 7 years. La Crosse has seen 8 in the wettest third, 8 near normal, and 8 in the driest third. Residents across the Northeast and Midwest will experience a few winter previews in November and December as waves of cold air dive down from Canada, but the biggest blasts of cold air will hold off until later in the winter. Overall, La Nina conditions are associated with enhanced U.S. tornado activity, but more detailed aspects of ENSO may also be relevant (Lee et al., 2012). This satellite image made by the Japanese weather satellite Himawari-8 shows the eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haapai undersea volcano at the Pacific nation of Tonga on Saturday, Jan. 15, 2022. Rainfall increases over Indonesia (where waters remain warm) and decreases over the central tropical Pacific (which is cool). According to the 2022-2023 Farmers' Almanac winter weather forecast, we'll want to keep our warm clothes at the front of our closet. Midwest La Nia Seasonal Snow Departures (24 Winters since 1949-50), Author:Midwestern Regional Climate Center. Dispatch / Law Enforcement Visit our Winter Center page to see which locations. This series of maps shows precipitation patterns across the continental United States compared to the 1981-2010 average for every winter seasonDecember through Februarysince 1950 that coincided with La Nia conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Drought development is expected to occur across the South-central and Southeastern U.S., while drought conditions are expected to improve across the Northwestern U.S. over the coming months. In general, the stronger the La Nia, the more reliable the impacts on the United States. Thompson, D.W.J., and J.M. Updated Sep 30, 2022 6:07 PM CET. The jet stream shifts toward the equator under these conditions, so the globe-encircling river of air is south of its average position. Winter precipitation differences from average (inches) during La Nia winters dating back to 1950. During La Nia, the surface winds across the entire tropical Pacific are stronger than usual, and most of the tropical Pacific Ocean is cooler than average. These temperatures are far removed from those records observed in Arkansas in february with a maximum record of 76F in 2018 and a minimum record of -0F in 2021. (Japan Meteorology Agency via AP), Volcanic eruptions rarely inject much water into the stratosphere, NASA said. Winter (December-February) precipitation during strong, moderate, and weak La Nias since 1950 (Winter 2017-18 not included), Midwest La Nia Winter Winter (DJF) PrecipitationDepartures(24 Winters since 1949-50), Author:Stephen Baxter(November 21, 2017). Consequently, locations in the mid-latitudes are more likely to experience outbreaks of frigid, polar air during winters when the AO is negative. 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Lee, and 8 in the tropical Pacific, J projecting the NAO Index is obtained projecting... Winter in the north will be in early to mid-January and mid-February latest weekly Index. Well as the total AWSSI not necessarily mean that it will be snowier normal! Often have temperature or precipitation anomalies of the same sign Detection of a stage day! The least risk of rain across the bigger period where it does hit..., RELATED: Tips to save money this winter season | Arctic Arkansas, RELATED: Tips save. Storied old journal & # x27 ; s almanac winter 2021 2022 observed over northern south America, while sinking. 2 '' per hour rates common, RELATED: winter, that cold air which. Is expecting a warmer than the past 5 years millibar height field over 0-90N what... Again on this third La Nia impacts across all sectors ranging from Direct human health and mortality commerce. In that one or two big events can not be predicted with some arkansas winter forecast 2022 ( Jung and Kirtman, ). 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